The FBI & Forgery

 

Operations Foul ball and Bullpen

"... law enforcement agencies consider autograph authentication too subjective and worry about forged bank checks and financial documents instead. But it has reached the point where the American public is losing as much in the purchase of phony autographs as they are from those who forge their names to checks. The SEC is right there when companies sell worthless stocks as investments, yet nothing is done to prevent this kind of robbery."

This quote is from autograph expert (and lawyer) Steve Raab. And he is certainly right about the scope and scale of the problem. But this line was penned a few years ago and things have changed a little. Since then, the FBI has indeed become more aggressive in the war against autograph forgeries.  There are currently two ongoing programs, Operation Bullpen and Operation Foul Ball aimed at clamping down on the forgers themselves and the dealers that knowingly launder fraudulent material.

More than a dozen forgers have been arrested since Operation Foul Ball began two years ago. They include: Anthony Alyinovich of Des Plaines, Ill., Jon Schwartz, Kevin Walsh of Chicago, Jason Gilman, Barry Carlstrom of Hanover Park, Ill, Bob Austin, Darren Prince (Prince of Cards), James Studley of Rockland, Mass., Richard Hall of Chicago, Joe Greer, Carlos Galvez, Mike Proebsting, Steven D. Berg of Chicago, and Timmy Lee of Sunnyvale, Cal.

Most recently Steve Ryan of North Shore Sports entered a plea bargaining agreement with the U.S. Attorney's office in Chicago that would send him to prison for one year and one day. According to the FBI, Ryan sold more than $200,000 in fake game used equipment and autographs from 1994-99.

More arrests are expected during the first half of 2000.

While this is certainly promising, it is the tip of the iceberg. Today at least half of the questionable sports autographs and memorabilia finds its ways into the hobby through on-line auction. The crack down in cyberspace has yet to begin ... but it will.

The FBI's 80% Estimate

Prior to the two decidedly aggressive FBI operations going on today, the greatest value of the bureau's small-scale autograph forgery stings had been raising the public consciousness about this widespread problem. Earlier operations were in short, national caveat emptor. And they were extremely valuable for there public relations value. But in their laudable zeal to raise awareness, a little truth got lost in the shuffle.

The FBI estimated that 80% of all autographs sold today are forgeries. While that may have made a impression on the general public, most people involved in the hobby, even tangentially, know that that figure is a gross overestimate. There are, to be sure certain, athletes and entertainers whose autographs are forged so commonly that 80% may be a conservative figure. However, the sports autograph market is more than Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio and Babe Ruth. It's also Lou Fonseca, Joe Torre and Babe Dahlgen. Our good friend Kevin Keating is Whitey Ford's autograph agent. The great Yankee hurler is a generous signer and pens thousands of autographs a year. Keating has seen less than a handful of Ford forgeries in his 30 years as a collector/dealer.

The fact is the FBI looked at the tip of the iceberg -- the part that is most easily seen and it is indeed fraught with peril -- and made some sweeping assumptions without doing the math. For an accurate assessment, they would have to have an idea of the total number of sports autographs in circulation. They don't. The mass of the sports autograph iceberg, the part which harbors George Kell, Yogi Berra, Bob Feller, Stan Musial, Brooks Robinson, Ferguson Jenkins, Bob Gibson, Bob Doerr, Juan Marichal, Tony Perez, Larry Doby and others who sign thousands of signatures a year, remains amazingly clean.

If I had to guess and had a perfect perspective on the aggregate number of autographs in the hobby at large we would say that the FBI has it upside down. Probably seventy five percent of sports autographs sold today are good.   Twenty five percent are bad -- but that 25% represents a hugely disproportionate amount of the dollars spent.

If we were to narrow the size of the universe to the signatures sold on-line, we would say half are good, half are bad. Again, if you look at the most sought after players the number of fraudulent pieces will be closer to 80-99%, and that's where a lot of the money goes.

Look. If saying that 80% of all sports autographs on the market today are forgeries makes buyers a little more discriminating, terrific.

Just don't expect us to believe it.

More detail will be added during the coming months.

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